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ESP Espagne - Primera Division RFEF - Groupe 1 · Match ·

UD Ourense vs Ponferradina

Market-based forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–12.43 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile37%
Nul28%
Victoire à l’extérieur35%
Market-based forecastVictoire à domicileTier B · 37% selection probability
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile37% selection probability
Projected score1–1UD OurensePonferradina
Expected goals2.43Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de56% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon50% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
37% / 28% / 35%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28%)Double chance1272%1.39
Plus de 44% · Moins de 56%Goals 2.5Moins de56%1.79
Oui 50% · Non 50%Les deux équipes marquentNon50%2.00
2.43 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
8.9 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin11.3%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimAucun
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
UD Ourense win37%2.702.5036%
Nul28%3.573.2028.1%
Ponferradina win35%2.862.5036%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

UD Ourense1.26

Domicile share of expected goals 51.9%

Total expected goals2.43Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 44% · Moins de 56%

Ponferradina1.17

Extérieur share of expected goals 48.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 50% · Non 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

UD Ourense

0.80pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Ponferradina

1.00pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalExtérieur matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Gagné probability excluding draw
35%
4
Points from supplied form
5
1.26
Expected goals
1.17
UD OurensePonferradina
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01UD Ourense signalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ponferradina signalExtérieur matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

UD Ourense vs Ponferradina FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

UD Ourense victoire 37%,Nul 28%,Ponferradina victoire 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.43 · Plus de 2.5 44% · Current selection Moins de