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URY Uruguay - Liga B · Partido ·

Peñarol - B vs Cerro Largo - B

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–13.08 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local67%
Empate20%
Victoria visitante13%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 67% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local67% selection probability
Projected score2–1Peñarol - BCerro Largo - B
Expected goals3.08Abrir match profile
Goals 2.5Más de60% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
67% / 20% / 13%Resultado del partidoVictoria local67%1.49
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cerro Largo - B win (13.4%)Doble Oportunidad1X86.6%1.15
Más de 60% · Menos de 40%Goals 2.5Más de60%1.67
Sí 45% · No 55%Ambos equipos marcanNo55%1.82
3.08 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–1
9.1 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapPeñarol - B winDifference+0.8 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Peñarol - B win67%1.491.3666.2%+0.8 pp
Empate20%5.004.5020%0.0 pp
Cerro Largo - B win13%7.696.5013.8%-0.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Peñarol - B2.39

Local share of expected goals 77.6%

Total expected goals3.08Abrir

Dedicated goals model: Más de 60% · Menos de 40%

Cerro Largo - B0.69

Visitante share of expected goals 22.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 45% · No 55%Match profileAbrir
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Peñarol - B

1.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Puntos8

SignalLocal unbeaten 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Cerro Largo - B

0.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins0Drawn0Losses5Puntos0

SignalLocal clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
67%
Ganado probability excluding draw
13%
8
Points from supplied form
0
2.39
Expected goals
0.69
Peñarol - BCerro Largo - B
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Peñarol - B signalLocal unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Cerro Largo - B signalLocal clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk33% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Peñarol - B vs Cerro Largo - B FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–1 · 67% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Peñarol - B ganada 67%,Empate 20%,Cerro Largo - B ganada 13%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.08 · Más de 2.5 60% · Current selection Más de