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HND Honduras - Liga Nacional · Partido ·

CD Olimpia vs Motagua

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–12.64 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local40%
Empate29%
Victoria visitante31%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local40% selection probability
Projected score1–1CD OlimpiaMotagua
Expected goals2.64Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de51% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcan54% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Más de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
40% / 29% / 31%Resultado del partidoVictoria local40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29%)Doble Oportunidad1271%1.41
Más de 49% · Menos de 51%Goals 2.5Menos de51%1.96
Sí 54% · No 46%Ambos equipos marcan54%1.85
2.64 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–1
10.4 expected match cornersCórnersMás de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCuotas justas
CD Olimpia win40%2.50
Empate29%3.45
Motagua win31%3.23

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CD Olimpia1.48

Local share of expected goals 56.1%

Total expected goals2.64Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 49% · Menos de 51%

Motagua1.16

Visitante share of expected goals 43.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 54% · No 46%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

CD Olimpia

1.80pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Puntos9

SignalLocal won 3/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Motagua

1.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Puntos8

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Ganado probability excluding draw
31%
9
Points from supplied form
8
1.48
Expected goals
1.16
CD OlimpiaMotagua
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CD Olimpia signalLocal won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Motagua signalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

CD Olimpia vs Motagua FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CD Olimpia ganada 40%,Empate 29%,Motagua ganada 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.64 · Más de 2.5 49% · Current selection Menos de