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HND Honduras - Liga Nacional · Wedstrijd ·

CD Olimpia vs Motagua

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–12.64 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst40%
Gelijkspel29%
Uitwinst31%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst40% selection probability
Projected score1–1CD OlimpiaMotagua
Expected goals2.64Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Onder51% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa54% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
40% / 29% / 31%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29%)Dubbele Kans1271%1.41
Boven 49% · Onder 51%Goals 2.5Onder51%1.96
Ja 54% · Nee 46%Beide teams scorenJa54%1.85
2.64 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
10.4 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
CD Olimpia win40%2.50
Gelijkspel29%3.45
Motagua win31%3.23

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CD Olimpia1.48

Thuis share of expected goals 56.1%

Total expected goals2.64Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 49% · Onder 51%

Motagua1.16

Uit share of expected goals 43.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 54% · Nee 46%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

CD Olimpia

1.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punten9

SignalThuis won 3/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Motagua

1.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punten8

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
31%
9
Points from supplied form
8
1.48
Expected goals
1.16
CD OlimpiaMotagua
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CD Olimpia signalThuis won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Motagua signalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

CD Olimpia vs Motagua FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CD Olimpia gewonnen 40%,Gelijkspel 29%,Motagua gewonnen 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.64 · Boven 2.5 49% · Current selection Onder