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ENG Inglaterra - Premier League · Partido ·

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–22.49 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local15%
Empate24%
Victoria visitante61%
Full model forecastVictoria visitanteTier A · 61% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria visitante61% selection probability
Projected score1–2Aston VillaArsenal
Expected goals2.49Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de55% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Más de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
15% / 24% / 61%Resultado del partidoVictoria visitante61%1.64
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Aston Villa win (15.3%)Doble OportunidadX284.7%1.18
Más de 45% · Menos de 55%Goals 2.5Menos de55%1.82
Sí 46% · No 54%Ambos equipos marcanNo54%1.85
2.49 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–2
9.8 expected match cornersCórnersMás de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.4%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Aston Villa win15%6.676.2515%0.0 pp
Empate24%4.174.0023.5%+0.5 pp
Arsenal win61%1.641.5361.5%-0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Aston Villa0.84

Local share of expected goals 33.7%

Total expected goals2.49Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 45% · Menos de 55%

Arsenal1.65

Visitante share of expected goals 66.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS split 46% · No 54%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Aston Villa

1.40pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puntos7

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Arsenal

3.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Puntos15

SignalVisitante unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
15%
Ganado probability excluding draw
61%
7
Points from supplied form
15
0.84
Expected goals
1.65
Aston VillaArsenal
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Aston Villa signalLocal matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arsenal signalVisitante unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk39% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Aston Villa vs Arsenal FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria visitante · Projected score 1–2 · 61% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Aston Villa ganada 15%,Empate 24%,Arsenal ganada 61%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.49 · Más de 2.5 45% · Current selection Menos de