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ENG England Premier League · Maç ·

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Ev Sahibi form
Projected score1–22.49 expected goals
Deplasman form
Ev sahibi kazanır15%
Beraberlik24%
Deplasman kazanır61%
Full model forecastDeplasman kazanırTier A · 61% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callDeplasman kazanır61% selection probability
Projected score1–2Aston VillaArsenal
Expected goals2.49Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Alt55% for the selected side
Karşılıklı gol varHayır54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Üst 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeçimOlasılıkAdil oran
15% / 24% / 61%Maç sonucuDeplasman kazanır61%1.64
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Aston Villa win (15.3%)Çifte ŞansX284.7%1.18
Üst 45% · Alt 55%Goals 2.5Alt55%1.82
Evet 46% · Hayır 54%Karşılıklı gol varHayır54%1.85
2.49 total expected goalsDoğru skor1–2
9.8 expected match cornersKornerlerÜst 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.4%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomeTahminAdil oranReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Aston Villa win15%6.676.2515%0.0 pp
Beraberlik24%4.174.0023.5%+0.5 pp
Arsenal win61%1.641.5361.5%-0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Aston Villa0.84

Ev Sahibi share of expected goals 33.7%

Total expected goals2.49Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Üst 45% · Alt 55%

Arsenal1.65

Deplasman share of expected goals 66.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitEvet 46% · Hayır 54%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Ev Sahibi-context · form sequence

Aston Villa

1.40pts / match
Oynanan5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puan7

SignalEv Sahibi matches over 2.5: 5/5

Deplasman-context · form sequence

Arsenal

3.00pts / match
Oynanan5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Puan15

SignalDeplasman unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
15%
Kazanç probability excluding draw
61%
7
Points from supplied form
15
0.84
Expected goals
1.65
Aston VillaArsenal
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Aston Villa signalEv Sahibi matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arsenal signalDeplasman unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk39% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Beraberlik probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Aston Villa vs Arsenal FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Deplasman kazanır · Projected score 1–2 · 61% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Aston Villa kazanç 15%,Beraberlik 24%,Arsenal kazanç 61%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.49 · 2.5 Üst 45% · Current selection Alt