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ENG Inglismaa Premier League · Mäng ·

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Kodu form
Projected score1–22.49 expected goals
Võõras form
Koduvõit15%
Viik24%
Võõrsilvõit61%
Full model forecastVõõrsilvõitTier A · 61% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVõõrsilvõit61% selection probability
Projected score1–2Aston VillaArsenal
Expected goals2.49Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Alla55% for the selected side
Mõlemad meeskonnad löövad väravaEi54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Üle 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValikTõenäosusÕiglane koefitsient
15% / 24% / 61%Mängu tulemusVõõrsilvõit61%1.64
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Aston Villa win (15.3%)TopeltvõimalusX284.7%1.18
Üle 45% · Alla 55%Goals 2.5Alla55%1.82
Jah 46% · Ei 54%Mõlemad meeskonnad löövad väravaEi54%1.85
2.49 total expected goalsTäpne skoor1–2
9.8 expected match cornersNurgalöögidÜle 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.4%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomeEnnustusÕiglane koefitsientReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Aston Villa win15%6.676.2515%0.0 pp
Viik24%4.174.0023.5%+0.5 pp
Arsenal win61%1.641.5361.5%-0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Aston Villa0.84

Kodu share of expected goals 33.7%

Total expected goals2.49Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Üle 45% · Alla 55%

Arsenal1.65

Võõras share of expected goals 66.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJah 46% · Ei 54%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Kodu-context · form sequence

Aston Villa

1.40pts / match
Mängitud5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punktid7

SignalKodu matches over 2.5: 5/5

Võõras-context · form sequence

Arsenal

3.00pts / match
Mängitud5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Punktid15

SignalVõõras unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
15%
Võit probability excluding draw
61%
7
Points from supplied form
15
0.84
Expected goals
1.65
Aston VillaArsenal
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Aston Villa signalKodu matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arsenal signalVõõras unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk39% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Viik probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Aston Villa vs Arsenal FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Võõrsilvõit · Projected score 1–2 · 61% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Aston Villa võit 15%,Viik 24%,Arsenal võit 61%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.49 · Üle 2.5 45% · Current selection Alla