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DEU Deutschland - Bundesliga · Spiel ·

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.74 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg49%
Unentschieden27%
Auswärtssieg24%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg49% selection probability
Projected score2–1SC FreiburgWerder Bremen
Expected goals2.74Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Über51% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
49% / 27% / 24%SpielergebnisHeimsieg49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Werder Bremen win (24%)Doppelte Chance1X76%1.32
Über 51% · Unter 49%Goals 2.5Über51%1.96
Ja 52% · Nein 48%Beide Teams treffenJa52%1.92
2.74 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
9.2 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapSC Freiburg winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
SC Freiburg win49%2.041.9548.6%+0.4 pp
Unentschieden27%3.703.5027.1%-0.1 pp
Werder Bremen win24%4.173.9024.3%-0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

SC Freiburg1.76

Heim share of expected goals 64.2%

Total expected goals2.74Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 51% · Unter 49%

Werder Bremen0.98

Auswärts share of expected goals 35.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 52% · Nein 48%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

SC Freiburg

1.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkte7

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Werder Bremen

0.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkte4

SignalAuswärts matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
49%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
24%
7
Points from supplied form
4
1.76
Expected goals
0.98
SC FreiburgWerder Bremen
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01SC Freiburg signalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Werder Bremen signalAuswärts matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

SC Freiburg Gewinn 49%,Unentschieden 27%,Werder Bremen Gewinn 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.74 · Über 2.5 51% · Current selection Über