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DNK Denmark Superligaen · Round 4 ·

AGF vs OB

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score3–13.38 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr55%
Uafgjort24%
Udesejr20%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr55% selection probability
Projected score3–1AGFOB
Expected goals3.38Åbn match profile
Goals 2.5Over66% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
55% / 24% / 20%KampresultatHjemmesejr55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes OB win (20.5%)Dobbeltchance1X79.5%1.26
Over 66% · Under 34%Goals 2.5Over66%1.52
Ja 52% · Nej 48%Begge hold scorerJa52%1.92
3.38 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat3–1
10.4 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.6%Largest probability gapOB winDifference-1.7 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
AGF win55%1.821.7553.6%+1.4 pp
Uafgjort24%4.173.8024.7%-0.7 pp
OB win20%5.004.3321.7%-1.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

AGF2.55

Hjemme share of expected goals 75.4%

Total expected goals3.38Åbn

Dedicated goals model: Over 66% · Under 34%

OB0.83

Ude share of expected goals 24.6%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitJa 52% · Nej 48%Match profileÅbn
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

AGF

0.80pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Point4

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 5/5

Ude-context · form sequence

OB

0.60pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Point3

SignalUde failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
55%
Vundet probability excluding draw
20%
4
Points from supplied form
3
2.55
Expected goals
0.83
AGFOB
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01AGF signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02OB signalUde failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

AGF vs OB FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 3–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

AGF vundet 55%,Uafgjort 24%,OB vundet 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.38 · Over 2.5 66% · Current selection Over