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DNK Denmark Superligaen · Round 4 ·

AGF Aarhus vs Odense BK

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score3–13.38 expected goals
Away form
Home win62%
Draw22%
Away win16%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 62% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win62% selection probability
Projected score3–1AGF AarhusOdense BK
Expected goals3.38Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over66% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
62% / 22% / 16%Match resultHome win62%1.61
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Odense BK win (15.5%)Double chance1X84.5%1.18
Over 66% · Under 34%Goals 2.5Over66%1.52
Yes 52% · No 48%Both teams scoreYes52%1.92
3.38 total expected goalsCorrect score3–1
10.4 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
AGF Aarhus win62%1.61
Draw22%4.55
Odense BK win16%6.25

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

AGF Aarhus2.55

Home share of expected goals 75.4%

Total expected goals3.38Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 66% · Under 34%

Odense BK0.83

Away share of expected goals 24.6%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitYes 52% · No 48%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

AGF Aarhus

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Odense BK

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalAway failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
62%
Win probability excluding draw
16%
4
Points from supplied form
3
2.55
Expected goals
0.83
AGF AarhusOdense BK
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01AGF Aarhus signalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Odense BK signalAway failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk38% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 22%.

Match questions

AGF Aarhus vs Odense BK FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 3–1 · 62% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

AGF Aarhus win 62%,Draw 22%,Odense BK win 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.38 · Over 2.5 66% · Current selection Over