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DNK Denmark Superligaen · Round 4 ·

Midtjylland vs Randers FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–13.09 expected goals
Away form
Home win66%
Draw21%
Away win13%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 66% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win66% selection probability
Projected score2–1MidtjyllandRanders FC
Expected goals3.09Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over60% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo58% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
66% / 21% / 13%Match resultHome win66%1.52
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Randers FC win (12.7%)Double chance1X87.3%1.15
Over 60% · Under 40%Goals 2.5Over60%1.67
Yes 42% · No 58%Both teams scoreNo58%1.72
3.09 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.2 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.8%Largest probability gapMidtjylland winDifference+1.0 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Midtjylland win66%1.521.4465%+1.0 pp
Draw21%4.764.3321.6%-0.6 pp
Randers FC win13%7.697.0013.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Midtjylland2.48

Home share of expected goals 80.3%

Total expected goals3.09Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 60% · Under 40%

Randers FC0.61

Away share of expected goals 19.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 42% · No 58%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Midtjylland

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Away-context · form sequence

Randers FC

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalAway failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
66%
Win probability excluding draw
13%
7
Points from supplied form
7
2.48
Expected goals
0.61
MidtjyllandRanders FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Midtjylland signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Randers FC signalAway failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk34% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

Midtjylland vs Randers FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 66% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Midtjylland win 66%,Draw 21%,Randers FC win 13%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.09 · Over 2.5 60% · Current selection Over