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NLD Nederlandene - Eerste Divisie · Kamp ·

FC Dordrecht vs Ajax reserver

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.77 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr44%
Uafgjort28%
Udesejr28%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr44% selection probability
Projected score2–1FC DordrechtAjax reserver
Expected goals2.77Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over52% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
44% / 28% / 28%KampresultatHjemmesejr44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28%)Dobbeltchance1272%1.39
Over 52% · Under 48%Goals 2.5Over52%1.92
Ja 55% · Nej 45%Begge hold scorerJa55%1.82
2.77 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.4 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
FC Dordrecht win44%2.27
Uafgjort28%3.57
Ajax reserver win28%3.57

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Dordrecht1.64

Hjemme share of expected goals 59.2%

Total expected goals2.77Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 52% · Under 48%

Ajax reserver1.13

Ude share of expected goals 40.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nej 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

FC Dordrecht

1.80pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Point9

SignalHjemme won 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Ajax reserver

0.60pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Point3

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Vundet probability excluding draw
28%
9
Points from supplied form
3
1.64
Expected goals
1.13
FC DordrechtAjax reserver
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Dordrecht signalHjemme won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ajax reserver signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

FC Dordrecht vs Ajax reserver FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Dordrecht vundet 44%,Uafgjort 28%,Ajax reserver vundet 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.77 · Over 2.5 52% · Current selection Over