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LVA Letland - Virsliga · Round 26 ·

SK Super Nova vs FK Liepaja

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.66 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr29%
Uafgjort26%
Udesejr45%
Full model forecastUdesejrTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUdesejr45% selection probability
Projected score1–1SK Super NovaFK Liepaja
Expected goals2.66Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under51% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
29% / 26% / 45%KampresultatUdesejr45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.4%)Dobbeltchance1273.6%1.36
Over 49% · Under 51%Goals 2.5Under51%1.96
Ja 54% · Nej 46%Begge hold scorerJa54%1.85
2.66 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.9 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapSK Super Nova winDifference+1.1 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
SK Super Nova win29%3.453.2027.9%+1.1 pp
Uafgjort26%3.853.4026.3%-0.3 pp
FK Liepaja win45%2.221.9545.8%-0.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

SK Super Nova1.34

Hjemme share of expected goals 50.4%

Total expected goals2.66Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 49% · Under 51%

FK Liepaja1.32

Ude share of expected goals 49.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 54% · Nej 46%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

SK Super Nova

1.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Point6

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

FK Liepaja

1.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Point6

SignalUde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
Vundet probability excluding draw
45%
6
Points from supplied form
6
1.34
Expected goals
1.32
SK Super NovaFK Liepaja
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01SK Super Nova signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Liepaja signalUde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

SK Super Nova vs FK Liepaja FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Udesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

SK Super Nova vundet 29%,Uafgjort 26%,FK Liepaja vundet 45%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.66 · Over 2.5 49% · Current selection Under