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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Coritiba vs Chapecoense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Ev Sahibi form
Projected score2–12.91 expected goals
Deplasman form
Ev sahibi kazanır55%
Beraberlik25%
Deplasman kazanır20%
Full model forecastEv sahibi kazanırTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callEv sahibi kazanır55% selection probability
Projected score2–1CoritibaChapecoense
Expected goals2.91Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Üst56% for the selected side
Karşılıklı gol varEvet50% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Alt 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeçimOlasılıkAdil oran
55% / 25% / 20%Maç sonucuEv sahibi kazanır55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Chapecoense win (19.7%)Çifte Şans1X80.3%1.25
Üst 56% · Alt 44%Goals 2.5Üst56%1.79
Evet 50% · Hayır 50%Karşılıklı gol varEvet50%2.00
2.91 total expected goalsDoğru skor2–1
9.7 expected match cornersKornerlerAlt 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Hayır snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityAdil oran
Coritiba win55%1.82
Beraberlik25%4.00
Chapecoense win20%5.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Coritiba2.05

Ev Sahibi share of expected goals 70.4%

Total expected goals2.91Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Üst 56% · Alt 44%

Chapecoense0.86

Deplasman share of expected goals 29.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitEvet 50% · Hayır 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Ev Sahibi-context · form sequence

Coritiba

0.80pts / match
Oynanan5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Puan4

SignalEv Sahibi matches over 2.5: 3/5

Deplasman-context · form sequence

Chapecoense

0.20pts / match
Oynanan5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Puan1

SignalEv Sahibi failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
55%
Kazanç probability excluding draw
20%
4
Points from supplied form
1
2.05
Expected goals
0.86
CoritibaChapecoense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Coritiba signalEv Sahibi matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chapecoense signalEv Sahibi failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Beraberlik probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Coritiba vs Chapecoense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Ev sahibi kazanır · Projected score 2–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Coritiba kazanç 55%,Beraberlik 25%,Chapecoense kazanç 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.91 · 2.5 Üst 56% · Current selection Üst