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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Coritiba vs Chapecoense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–12.91 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile55%
Nul25%
Victoire à l’extérieur20%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile55% selection probability
Projected score2–1CoritibaChapecoense
Expected goals2.91Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de56% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui50% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
55% / 25% / 20%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Chapecoense win (19.7%)Double chance1X80.3%1.25
Plus de 56% · Moins de 44%Goals 2.5Plus de56%1.79
Oui 50% · Non 50%Les deux équipes marquentOui50%2.00
2.91 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
9.7 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
Coritiba win55%1.82
Nul25%4.00
Chapecoense win20%5.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Coritiba2.05

Domicile share of expected goals 70.4%

Total expected goals2.91Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 56% · Moins de 44%

Chapecoense0.86

Extérieur share of expected goals 29.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 50% · Non 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Coritiba

0.80pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Chapecoense

0.20pts / match
Joués5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalDomicile failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
55%
Gagné probability excluding draw
20%
4
Points from supplied form
1
2.05
Expected goals
0.86
CoritibaChapecoense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Coritiba signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chapecoense signalDomicile failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Coritiba vs Chapecoense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Coritiba victoire 55%,Nul 25%,Chapecoense victoire 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.91 · Plus de 2.5 56% · Current selection Plus de