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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Coritiba vs Chapecoense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score2–12.91 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy55%
Remis25%
Wygrana gości20%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy55% selection probability
Projected score2–1CoritibaChapecoense
Expected goals2.91Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Powyżej56% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląTak50% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Poniżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
55% / 25% / 20%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Chapecoense win (19.7%)Podwójna szansa1X80.3%1.25
Powyżej 56% · Poniżej 44%Goals 2.5Powyżej56%1.79
Tak 50% · Nie 50%Obie drużyny strzeląTak50%2.00
2.91 total expected goalsDokładny wynik2–1
9.7 expected match cornersRożnePoniżej 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nie snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityUczciwy kurs
Coritiba win55%1.82
Remis25%4.00
Chapecoense win20%5.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Coritiba2.05

Gospodarze share of expected goals 70.4%

Total expected goals2.91Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 56% · Poniżej 44%

Chapecoense0.86

Goście share of expected goals 29.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitTak 50% · Nie 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Coritiba

0.80pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkty4

SignalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 3/5

Goście-context · form sequence

Chapecoense

0.20pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Punkty1

SignalGospodarze failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
55%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
20%
4
Points from supplied form
1
2.05
Expected goals
0.86
CoritibaChapecoense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Coritiba signalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chapecoense signalGospodarze failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Coritiba vs Chapecoense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 2–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Coritiba wygrana 55%,Remis 25%,Chapecoense wygrana 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.91 · Powyżej 2.5 56% · Current selection Powyżej