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ENG England - National League South · Round 1 ·

Torquay vs Horsham

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.74 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger68%
Oavgjort19%
Bortaseger12%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 68% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger68% selection probability
Projected score2–1TorquayHorsham
Expected goals2.74Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över52% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
68% / 19% / 12%MatchresultatHemmaseger68%1.47
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Horsham win (12.5%)Dubbelchans1X87.5%1.14
Över 52% · Under 48%Goals 2.5Över52%1.92
Ja 51% · Nej 49%Båda lagen gör målJa51%1.96
2.74 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.6 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapTorquay winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Torquay win68%1.471.3069.1%-1.1 pp
Oavgjort19%5.264.7518.9%+0.1 pp
Horsham win12%8.337.5012%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Torquay1.80

Hemma share of expected goals 65.7%

Total expected goals2.74Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 52% · Under 48%

Horsham0.94

Borta share of expected goals 34.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 51% · Nej 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Torquay

2.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poäng10

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Horsham

0.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Poäng4

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
68%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
12%
10
Points from supplied form
4
1.80
Expected goals
0.94
TorquayHorsham
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Torquay signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Horsham signalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk32% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 19%.

Match questions

Torquay vs Horsham FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 68% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Torquay vunnen 68%,Oavgjort 19%,Horsham vunnen 12%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.74 · Över 2.5 52% · Current selection Över