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URY Uruguay - Clausura · Meci ·

Montevideo City Torque vs Penarol

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–22.89 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde34%
Egal28%
Victorie oaspeți38%
Full model forecastVictorie oaspețiTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie oaspeți38% selection probability
Projected score1–2Montevideo City TorquePenarol
Expected goals2.89Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Peste55% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăDa59% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
34% / 28% / 38%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie oaspeți38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28%)Șansă dublă1272%1.39
Peste 55% · Sub 45%Goals 2.5Peste55%1.82
Da 59% · Nu 41%Ambele echipe marcheazăDa59%1.69
2.89 total expected goalsScor corect1–2
9.2 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
Montevideo City Torque win34%2.94
Egal28%3.57
Penarol win38%2.63

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Montevideo City Torque1.37

Gazde share of expected goals 47.4%

Total expected goals2.89Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 55% · Sub 45%

Penarol1.52

Oaspeți share of expected goals 52.6%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitDa 59% · Nu 41%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Montevideo City Torque

2.00pts / match
Jucate5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Puncte10

SignalGazde unbeaten 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Penarol

0.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Puncte2

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Câștig probability excluding draw
38%
10
Points from supplied form
2
1.37
Expected goals
1.52
Montevideo City TorquePenarol
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Montevideo City Torque signalGazde unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Penarol signalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Montevideo City Torque vs Penarol FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie oaspeți · Projected score 1–2 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Montevideo City Torque câștig 34%,Egal 28%,Penarol câștig 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.89 · Peste 2.5 55% · Current selection Peste