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POL Poland I Liga · Wedstrijd ·

Polonia Bytom vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–23.42 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst40%
Gelijkspel26%
Uitwinst34%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst40% selection probability
Projected score2–2Polonia BytomPogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Expected goals3.42Openen match profile
Goals 2.5Boven66% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa67% for the selected side
Expected corners11.0Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
40% / 26% / 34%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.1%)Dubbele Kans1273.9%1.35
Boven 66% · Onder 34%Goals 2.5Boven66%1.52
Ja 67% · Nee 33%Beide teams scorenJa67%1.49
3.42 total expected goalsExacte score2–2
11.0 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Polonia Bytom win40%2.50
Gelijkspel26%3.85
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win34%2.94

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Polonia Bytom1.81

Thuis share of expected goals 52.9%

Total expected goals3.42Openen

Dedicated goals model: Boven 66% · Onder 34%

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki1.61

Uit share of expected goals 47.1%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitJa 67% · Nee 33%Match profileOpenen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Polonia Bytom

0.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punten4

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 5/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

2.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punten10

SignalUit unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
34%
4
Points from supplied form
10
1.81
Expected goals
1.61
Polonia BytomPogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Polonia Bytom signalThuis matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki signalUit unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Polonia Bytom vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–2 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Polonia Bytom gewonnen 40%,Gelijkspel 26%,Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki gewonnen 34%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.42 · Boven 2.5 66% · Current selection Boven