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TijdzoneAsia/Shanghai
Nederlands
POL Polen - Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–13.11 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst54%
Gelijkspel25%
Uitwinst21%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst54% selection probability
Projected score2–1Lech PoznanPiast Gliwice
Expected goals3.11Openen match profile
Goals 2.5Boven60% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa56% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
54% / 25% / 21%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Piast Gliwice win (21.4%)Dubbele Kans1X78.6%1.27
Boven 60% · Onder 40%Goals 2.5Boven60%1.67
Ja 56% · Nee 44%Beide teams scorenJa56%1.79
3.11 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
10.3 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Lech Poznan win54%1.85
Gelijkspel25%4.00
Piast Gliwice win21%4.76

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lech Poznan2.12

Thuis share of expected goals 68.2%

Total expected goals3.11Openen

Dedicated goals model: Boven 60% · Onder 40%

Piast Gliwice0.99

Uit share of expected goals 31.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 56% · Nee 44%Match profileOpenen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Lech Poznan

2.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punten10

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Piast Gliwice

2.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punten10

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
21%
10
Points from supplied form
10
2.12
Expected goals
0.99
Lech PoznanPiast Gliwice
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lech Poznan signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Piast Gliwice signalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lech Poznan gewonnen 54%,Gelijkspel 25%,Piast Gliwice gewonnen 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.11 · Boven 2.5 60% · Current selection Boven