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POL Polska - Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Lech Poznań vs Piast Gliwice

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score2–13.10 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy53%
Remis25%
Wygrana gości21%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 53% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy53% selection probability
Projected score2–1Lech PoznańPiast Gliwice
Expected goals3.10Otwarcie match profile
Goals 2.5Powyżej60% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląTak56% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Powyżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
53% / 25% / 21%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy53%1.89
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Piast Gliwice win (21.5%)Podwójna szansa1X78.5%1.27
Powyżej 60% · Poniżej 40%Goals 2.5Powyżej60%1.67
Tak 56% · Nie 44%Obie drużyny strzeląTak56%1.79
3.10 total expected goalsDokładny wynik2–1
10.3 expected match cornersRożnePowyżej 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nie snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityUczciwy kurs
Lech Poznań win53%1.89
Remis25%4.00
Piast Gliwice win21%4.76

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lech Poznań2.11

Gospodarze share of expected goals 68.1%

Total expected goals3.10Otwarcie

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 60% · Poniżej 40%

Piast Gliwice0.99

Goście share of expected goals 31.9%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitTak 56% · Nie 44%Match profileOtwarcie
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Lech Poznań

2.00pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punkty10

SignalGospodarze unbeaten 4/5

Goście-context · form sequence

Piast Gliwice

2.00pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punkty10

SignalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
53%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
21%
10
Points from supplied form
10
2.11
Expected goals
0.99
Lech PoznańPiast Gliwice
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lech Poznań signalGospodarze unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Piast Gliwice signalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk47% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Lech Poznań vs Piast Gliwice FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 2–1 · 53% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lech Poznań wygrana 53%,Remis 25%,Piast Gliwice wygrana 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.10 · Powyżej 2.5 60% · Current selection Powyżej