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POL Poland Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–13.11 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr54%
Uafgjort25%
Udesejr21%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr54% selection probability
Projected score2–1Lech PoznanPiast Gliwice
Expected goals3.11Åbn match profile
Goals 2.5Over60% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa56% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
54% / 25% / 21%KampresultatHjemmesejr54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Piast Gliwice win (21.4%)Dobbeltchance1X78.6%1.27
Over 60% · Under 40%Goals 2.5Over60%1.67
Ja 56% · Nej 44%Begge hold scorerJa56%1.79
3.11 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.3 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Lech Poznan win54%1.85
Uafgjort25%4.00
Piast Gliwice win21%4.76

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lech Poznan2.12

Hjemme share of expected goals 68.2%

Total expected goals3.11Åbn

Dedicated goals model: Over 60% · Under 40%

Piast Gliwice0.99

Ude share of expected goals 31.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 56% · Nej 44%Match profileÅbn
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Lech Poznan

2.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Point10

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Piast Gliwice

2.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Point10

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Vundet probability excluding draw
21%
10
Points from supplied form
10
2.12
Expected goals
0.99
Lech PoznanPiast Gliwice
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lech Poznan signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Piast Gliwice signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lech Poznan vundet 54%,Uafgjort 25%,Piast Gliwice vundet 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.11 · Over 2.5 60% · Current selection Over