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COL Colombia - Categoría Primera A · Wedstrijd ·

Alianza vs Atletico Bucaramanga

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–11.77 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst31%
Gelijkspel31%
Uitwinst38%
Full model forecastUitwinstTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUitwinst38% selection probability
Projected score1–1AlianzaAtletico Bucaramanga
Expected goals1.77Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Onder74% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee66% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
31% / 31% / 38%WedstrijdresultaatUitwinst38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Alianza win (30.9%)Dubbele KansX269.1%1.45
Boven 26% · Onder 74%Goals 2.5Onder74%1.35
Ja 34% · Nee 66%Beide teams scorenNee66%1.52
1.77 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
8.9 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.7%Largest probability gapAtletico Bucaramanga winDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Alianza win31%3.233.0031.3%-0.2 pp
Gelijkspel31%3.233.0031.3%-0.2 pp
Atletico Bucaramanga win38%2.632.5037.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Alianza0.78

Thuis share of expected goals 44.1%

Total expected goals1.77Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Boven 26% · Onder 74%

Atletico Bucaramanga0.99

Uit share of expected goals 55.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 34% · Nee 66%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Alianza

0.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Punten3

SignalThuis failed to score: 2/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Atletico Bucaramanga

1.20pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Punten6

SignalUit unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
31%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
38%
3
Points from supplied form
6
0.78
Expected goals
0.99
AlianzaAtletico Bucaramanga
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Alianza signalThuis failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Atletico Bucaramanga signalUit unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Alianza vs Atletico Bucaramanga FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Uitwinst · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Alianza gewonnen 31%,Gelijkspel 31%,Atletico Bucaramanga gewonnen 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.77 · Boven 2.5 26% · Current selection Onder