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AUT Austria Bundesliga · Round 1 ·

Hartberg vs SK Sturm Graz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–12.25 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst32%
Gelijkspel31%
Uitwinst37%
Full model forecastUitwinstTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUitwinst37% selection probability
Projected score1–1HartbergSK Sturm Graz
Expected goals2.25Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Onder61% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
32% / 31% / 37%WedstrijdresultaatUitwinst37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (30.7%)Dubbele Kans1269.3%1.44
Boven 39% · Onder 61%Goals 2.5Onder61%1.64
Ja 46% · Nee 54%Beide teams scorenNee54%1.85
2.25 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
9.8 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Hartberg win32%3.13
Gelijkspel31%3.23
SK Sturm Graz win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hartberg1.06

Thuis share of expected goals 47.1%

Total expected goals2.25Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Boven 39% · Onder 61%

SK Sturm Graz1.19

Uit share of expected goals 52.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 46% · Nee 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Hartberg

1.40pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punten7

SignalThuis matches under 2.5: 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

SK Sturm Graz

1.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punten8

SignalThuis clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
32%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
37%
7
Points from supplied form
8
1.06
Expected goals
1.19
HartbergSK Sturm Graz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hartberg signalThuis matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02SK Sturm Graz signalThuis clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Hartberg vs SK Sturm Graz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Uitwinst · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hartberg gewonnen 32%,Gelijkspel 31%,SK Sturm Graz gewonnen 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.25 · Boven 2.5 39% · Current selection Onder