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AUT Austria Bundesliga · Round 1 ·

Hartberg vs SK Sturm Graz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–12.25 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile21%
Nul25%
Victoire à l’extérieur54%
Full model forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur54% selection probability
Projected score1–1HartbergSK Sturm Graz
Expected goals2.25Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de61% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
21% / 25% / 54%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Hartberg win (20.6%)Double chanceX279.4%1.26
Plus de 39% · Moins de 61%Goals 2.5Moins de61%1.64
Oui 46% · Non 54%Les deux équipes marquentNon54%1.85
2.25 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
9.8 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.5%Largest probability gapHartberg winDifference+1.2 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Hartberg win21%4.764.7519.8%+1.2 pp
Nul25%4.003.7525%0.0 pp
SK Sturm Graz win54%1.851.7055.2%-1.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hartberg1.06

Domicile share of expected goals 47.1%

Total expected goals2.25Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 39% · Moins de 61%

SK Sturm Graz1.19

Extérieur share of expected goals 52.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 46% · Non 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Hartberg

1.40pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

SK Sturm Graz

1.60pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
21%
Gagné probability excluding draw
54%
7
Points from supplied form
8
1.06
Expected goals
1.19
HartbergSK Sturm Graz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hartberg signalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02SK Sturm Graz signalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Hartberg vs SK Sturm Graz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 1–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hartberg victoire 21%,Nul 25%,SK Sturm Graz victoire 54%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.25 · Plus de 2.5 39% · Current selection Moins de