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SCO Schotland - Championship · Round 1 ·

Dunfermline vs Ayr

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–12.53 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst48%
Gelijkspel28%
Uitwinst24%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst48% selection probability
Projected score2–1DunfermlineAyr
Expected goals2.53Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Onder53% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
48% / 28% / 24%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Ayr win (23.8%)Dubbele Kans1X76.2%1.31
Boven 47% · Onder 53%Goals 2.5Onder53%1.89
Ja 48% · Nee 52%Beide teams scorenNee52%1.92
2.53 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
9.6 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Dunfermline win48%2.08
Gelijkspel28%3.57
Ayr win24%4.17

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Dunfermline1.65

Thuis share of expected goals 65.2%

Total expected goals2.53Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 47% · Onder 53%

Ayr0.88

Uit share of expected goals 34.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nee 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Dunfermline

1.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punten5

SignalThuis matches under 2.5: 5/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Ayr

1.20pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punten6

SignalThuis clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
24%
5
Points from supplied form
6
1.65
Expected goals
0.88
DunfermlineAyr
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Dunfermline signalThuis matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ayr signalThuis clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Dunfermline vs Ayr FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Dunfermline gewonnen 48%,Gelijkspel 28%,Ayr gewonnen 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.53 · Boven 2.5 47% · Current selection Onder