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SCO Scotia - Championship · Round 1 ·

Dunfermline vs Ayr

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–12.53 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde48%
Egal28%
Victorie oaspeți24%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde48% selection probability
Projected score2–1DunfermlineAyr
Expected goals2.53Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sub53% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
48% / 28% / 24%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Ayr win (23.8%)Șansă dublă1X76.2%1.31
Peste 47% · Sub 53%Goals 2.5Sub53%1.89
Da 48% · Nu 52%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu52%1.92
2.53 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
9.6 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
Dunfermline win48%2.08
Egal28%3.57
Ayr win24%4.17

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Dunfermline1.65

Gazde share of expected goals 65.2%

Total expected goals2.53Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 47% · Sub 53%

Ayr0.88

Oaspeți share of expected goals 34.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 48% · Nu 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Dunfermline

1.00pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Puncte5

SignalGazde matches under 2.5: 5/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Ayr

1.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Puncte6

SignalGazde clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Câștig probability excluding draw
24%
5
Points from supplied form
6
1.65
Expected goals
0.88
DunfermlineAyr
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Dunfermline signalGazde matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ayr signalGazde clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Dunfermline vs Ayr FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Dunfermline câștig 48%,Egal 28%,Ayr câștig 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.53 · Peste 2.5 47% · Current selection Sub