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WAL Wales Championship South · Kamp ·

Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–22.92 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier21%
Uavgjort22%
Borteseier56%
Full model forecastBorteseierTier A · 56% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBorteseier56% selection probability
Projected score1–2Baglan DragonsCaerau Ely
Expected goals2.92Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over56% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei58% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
21% / 22% / 56%KampresultatBorteseier56%1.79
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Baglan Dragons win (21.4%)Dobbel sjanseX278.6%1.27
Over 56% · Under 44%Goals 2.5Over56%1.79
Ja 42% · Nei 58%Begge lag scorerNei58%1.72
2.92 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–2
10.3 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapBaglan Dragons winDifference-2.0 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Baglan Dragons win21%4.763.9023%-2.0 pp
Uavgjort22%4.554.0022.5%-0.5 pp
Caerau Ely win56%1.791.6554.5%+1.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Baglan Dragons0.63

Hjemme share of expected goals 21.6%

Total expected goals2.92Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 56% · Under 44%

Caerau Ely2.29

Borte share of expected goals 78.4%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 42% · Nei 58%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Baglan Dragons

1.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poeng5

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Caerau Ely

1.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poeng5

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
21%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
56%
5
Points from supplied form
5
0.63
Expected goals
2.29
Baglan DragonsCaerau Ely
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Baglan Dragons signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Caerau Ely signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk44% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 22%.

Match questions

Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Borteseier · Projected score 1–2 · 56% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Baglan Dragons vunnet 21%,Uavgjort 22%,Caerau Ely vunnet 56%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.92 · Over 2.5 56% · Current selection Over