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WAL Walia - Championship South · Mecz ·

Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score1–22.92 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy21%
Remis22%
Wygrana gości56%
Full model forecastWygrana gościTier A · 56% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gości56% selection probability
Projected score1–2Baglan DragonsCaerau Ely
Expected goals2.92Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Powyżej56% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląNie58% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Powyżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
21% / 22% / 56%Wynik meczuWygrana gości56%1.79
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Baglan Dragons win (21.4%)Podwójna szansaX278.6%1.27
Powyżej 56% · Poniżej 44%Goals 2.5Powyżej56%1.79
Tak 42% · Nie 58%Obie drużyny strzeląNie58%1.72
2.92 total expected goalsDokładny wynik1–2
10.3 expected match cornersRożnePowyżej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapBaglan Dragons winDifference-2.0 pp
OutcomePrognozaUczciwy kursReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Baglan Dragons win21%4.763.9023%-2.0 pp
Remis22%4.554.0022.5%-0.5 pp
Caerau Ely win56%1.791.6554.5%+1.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Baglan Dragons0.63

Gospodarze share of expected goals 21.6%

Total expected goals2.92Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 56% · Poniżej 44%

Caerau Ely2.29

Goście share of expected goals 78.4%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitTak 42% · Nie 58%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Baglan Dragons

1.00pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punkty5

SignalGospodarze matches under 2.5: 4/5

Goście-context · form sequence

Caerau Ely

1.00pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punkty5

SignalGospodarze clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
21%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
56%
5
Points from supplied form
5
0.63
Expected goals
2.29
Baglan DragonsCaerau Ely
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Baglan Dragons signalGospodarze matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Caerau Ely signalGospodarze clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk44% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 22%.

Match questions

Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gości · Projected score 1–2 · 56% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Baglan Dragons wygrana 21%,Remis 22%,Caerau Ely wygrana 56%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.92 · Powyżej 2.5 56% · Current selection Powyżej