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BGR Bulgaria First League · Kamp ·

Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score3–13.48 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier75%
Uavgjort17%
Borteseier7%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 75% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier75% selection probability
Projected score3–1Levski SofiaSpartak Varna
Expected goals3.48Åpning match profile
Goals 2.5Over67% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
75% / 17% / 7%KampresultatHjemmeseier75%1.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Spartak Varna win (7.5%)Dobbel sjanse1X92.5%1.08
Over 67% · Under 33%Goals 2.5Over67%1.49
Ja 39% · Nei 61%Begge lag scorerNei61%1.64
3.48 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat3–1
9.0 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.1%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Levski Sofia win75%1.331.2774.2%+0.8 pp
Uavgjort17%5.885.2517.9%-0.9 pp
Spartak Varna win7%14.2912.007.9%-0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Levski Sofia2.95

Hjemme share of expected goals 84.8%

Total expected goals3.48Åpning

Dedicated goals model: Over 67% · Under 33%

Spartak Varna0.53

Borte share of expected goals 15.2%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitJa 39% · Nei 61%Match profileÅpning
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Levski Sofia

2.60pts / match
Spilt5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Poeng13

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

1.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poeng7

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
75%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
7%
13
Points from supplied form
7
2.95
Expected goals
0.53
Levski SofiaSpartak Varna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Levski Sofia signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Spartak Varna signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk25% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 3–1 · 75% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Levski Sofia vunnet 75%,Uavgjort 17%,Spartak Varna vunnet 7%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.48 · Over 2.5 67% · Current selection Over