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BGR Bulharsko - Prvá liga · Zápas ·

Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domáci form
Projected score3–13.48 expected goals
Hostia form
Výhra domácich75%
Remíza17%
Výhra hostí7%
Full model forecastVýhra domácichTier A · 75% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVýhra domácich75% selection probability
Projected score3–1Levski SofiaSpartak Varna
Expected goals3.48Otvoriť match profile
Goals 2.5Viac67% for the selected side
Oba tímy skórujúNie61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Menej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVýberPravdepodobnosťFérový kurz
75% / 17% / 7%Výsledok zápasuVýhra domácich75%1.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Spartak Varna win (7.5%)Dvojitá šanca1X92.5%1.08
Viac 67% · Menej 33%Goals 2.5Viac67%1.49
Áno 39% · Nie 61%Oba tímy skórujúNie61%1.64
3.48 total expected goalsPresné skóre3–1
9.0 expected match cornersRohyMenej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.1%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomePredpoveďFérový kurzReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Levski Sofia win75%1.331.2774.2%+0.8 pp
Remíza17%5.885.2517.9%-0.9 pp
Spartak Varna win7%14.2912.007.9%-0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Levski Sofia2.95

Domáci share of expected goals 84.8%

Total expected goals3.48Otvoriť

Dedicated goals model: Viac 67% · Menej 33%

Spartak Varna0.53

Hostia share of expected goals 15.2%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitÁno 39% · Nie 61%Match profileOtvoriť
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domáci-context · form sequence

Levski Sofia

2.60pts / match
Odohrané5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Body13

SignalDomáci unbeaten 5/5

Hostia-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

1.40pts / match
Odohrané5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Body7

SignalDomáci matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
75%
Výhra probability excluding draw
7%
13
Points from supplied form
7
2.95
Expected goals
0.53
Levski SofiaSpartak Varna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Levski Sofia signalDomáci unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Spartak Varna signalDomáci matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk25% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remíza probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Výhra domácich · Projected score 3–1 · 75% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Levski Sofia výhra 75%,Remíza 17%,Spartak Varna výhra 7%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.48 · Viac 2.5 67% · Current selection Viac