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BGR Bulgarie - Parva liga · Match ·

Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score3–13.48 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile75%
Nul17%
Victoire à l’extérieur7%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 75% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile75% selection probability
Projected score3–1Levski SofiaSpartak Varna
Expected goals3.48Ouverture match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de67% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
75% / 17% / 7%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile75%1.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Spartak Varna win (7.5%)Double chance1X92.5%1.08
Plus de 67% · Moins de 33%Goals 2.5Plus de67%1.49
Oui 39% · Non 61%Les deux équipes marquentNon61%1.64
3.48 total expected goalsScore exact3–1
9.0 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.1%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Levski Sofia win75%1.331.2774.2%+0.8 pp
Nul17%5.885.2517.9%-0.9 pp
Spartak Varna win7%14.2912.007.9%-0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Levski Sofia2.95

Domicile share of expected goals 84.8%

Total expected goals3.48Ouverture

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 67% · Moins de 33%

Spartak Varna0.53

Extérieur share of expected goals 15.2%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitOui 39% · Non 61%Match profileOuverture
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Levski Sofia

2.60pts / match
Joués5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

1.40pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
75%
Gagné probability excluding draw
7%
13
Points from supplied form
7
2.95
Expected goals
0.53
Levski SofiaSpartak Varna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Levski Sofia signalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Spartak Varna signalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk25% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 3–1 · 75% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Levski Sofia victoire 75%,Nul 17%,Spartak Varna victoire 7%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.48 · Plus de 2.5 67% · Current selection Plus de