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BGR Bułgaria - 1. Liga · Mecz ·

Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score3–13.48 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy75%
Remis17%
Wygrana gości7%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 75% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy75% selection probability
Projected score3–1Levski SofiaSpartak Varna
Expected goals3.48Otwarcie match profile
Goals 2.5Powyżej67% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląNie61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Poniżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
75% / 17% / 7%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy75%1.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Spartak Varna win (7.5%)Podwójna szansa1X92.5%1.08
Powyżej 67% · Poniżej 33%Goals 2.5Powyżej67%1.49
Tak 39% · Nie 61%Obie drużyny strzeląNie61%1.64
3.48 total expected goalsDokładny wynik3–1
9.0 expected match cornersRożnePoniżej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.1%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomePrognozaUczciwy kursReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Levski Sofia win75%1.331.2774.2%+0.8 pp
Remis17%5.885.2517.9%-0.9 pp
Spartak Varna win7%14.2912.007.9%-0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Levski Sofia2.95

Gospodarze share of expected goals 84.8%

Total expected goals3.48Otwarcie

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 67% · Poniżej 33%

Spartak Varna0.53

Goście share of expected goals 15.2%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitTak 39% · Nie 61%Match profileOtwarcie
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Levski Sofia

2.60pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punkty13

SignalGospodarze unbeaten 5/5

Goście-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

1.40pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkty7

SignalGospodarze matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
75%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
7%
13
Points from supplied form
7
2.95
Expected goals
0.53
Levski SofiaSpartak Varna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Levski Sofia signalGospodarze unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Spartak Varna signalGospodarze matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk25% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 3–1 · 75% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Levski Sofia wygrana 75%,Remis 17%,Spartak Varna wygrana 7%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.48 · Powyżej 2.5 67% · Current selection Powyżej