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PRT Portugal Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

Estoril vs Famalicao

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.52 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier32%
Uavgjort30%
Borteseier38%
Full model forecastBorteseierTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBorteseier38% selection probability
Projected score1–1EstorilFamalicao
Expected goals2.52Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under54% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
32% / 30% / 38%KampresultatBorteseier38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.5%)Dobbel sjanse1270.5%1.42
Over 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Ja 51% · Nei 49%Begge lag scorerJa51%1.96
2.52 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.7 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Estoril win32%3.13
Uavgjort30%3.33
Famalicao win38%2.63

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Estoril1.17

Hjemme share of expected goals 46.4%

Total expected goals2.52Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 46% · Under 54%

Famalicao1.35

Borte share of expected goals 53.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 51% · Nei 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Estoril

0.80pts / match
Spilt5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Poeng4

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Famalicao

1.60pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poeng8

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
32%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
38%
4
Points from supplied form
8
1.17
Expected goals
1.35
EstorilFamalicao
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Estoril signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Famalicao signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Estoril vs Famalicao FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Borteseier · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Estoril vunnet 32%,Uavgjort 30%,Famalicao vunnet 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.52 · Over 2.5 46% · Current selection Under