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NLD Netherlands Eerste Divisie · Final ·

De Graafschap vs AZ reserver

Prediction review

Hjemme form
Final score2–5Prognose 3–1
Borte form
Hjemmeseier54%
Uavgjort21%
Borteseier24%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 54% selection probability
Prediction Tapt
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier54% selection probability
Projected score3–1De GraafschapAZ reserver
Expected goals4.03Åpning match profile
Goals 2.5Over77% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa70% for the selected side
Expected corners10.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
54% / 21% / 24%KampresultatHjemmeseier54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (21.3%)Dobbel sjanse1278.7%1.27
Over 77% · Under 23%Goals 2.5Over77%1.30
Ja 70% · Nei 30%Begge lag scorerJa70%1.43
4.03 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat3–1
10.8 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.9%Largest probability gapAZ reserver winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
De Graafschap win54%1.851.7553.5%+0.5 pp
Uavgjort21%4.764.3321.6%-0.6 pp
AZ reserver win24%4.173.7524.9%-0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

De Graafschap2.62

Hjemme share of expected goals 65%

Total expected goals4.03Åpning

Dedicated goals model: Over 77% · Under 23%

AZ reserver1.41

Borte share of expected goals 35%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitJa 70% · Nei 30%Match profileÅpning
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

De Graafschap

1.60pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poeng8

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

AZ reserver

2.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Poeng12

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
24%
8
Points from supplied form
12
2.62
Expected goals
1.41
De GraafschapAZ reserver
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01De Graafschap signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02AZ reserver signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

De Graafschap vs AZ reserver FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 3–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

De Graafschap vunnet 54%,Uavgjort 21%,AZ reserver vunnet 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 4.03 · Over 2.5 77% · Current selection Over