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CHE Switzerland Challenge League · Fixture ·

Yverdon Sport FC vs Aarau

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.67 expected goals
Away form
Home win44%
Draw25%
Away win31%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win44% selection probability
Projected score2–2Yverdon Sport FCAarau
Expected goals3.67Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over71% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes70% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
44% / 25% / 31%Match resultHome win44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25%)Double chance1275%1.33
Over 71% · Under 29%Goals 2.5Over71%1.41
Yes 70% · No 30%Both teams scoreYes70%1.43
3.67 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
8.7 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.9%Largest probability gapYverdon Sport FC winDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Yverdon Sport FC win44%2.272.1543.5%+0.5 pp
Draw25%4.003.7025.3%-0.3 pp
Aarau win31%3.233.0031.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Yverdon Sport FC2.04

Home share of expected goals 55.6%

Total expected goals3.67Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 71% · Under 29%

Aarau1.63

Away share of expected goals 44.4%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 70% · No 30%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Yverdon Sport FC

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Points6

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Aarau

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Win probability excluding draw
31%
6
Points from supplied form
7
2.04
Expected goals
1.63
Yverdon Sport FCAarau
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Yverdon Sport FC signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Aarau signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Yverdon Sport FC vs Aarau FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–2 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Yverdon Sport FC win 44%,Draw 25%,Aarau win 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.67 · Over 2.5 71% · Current selection Over