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POL Poland Ekstraklasa · Fixture ·

Rakow Czestochowa vs Jagiellonia Bialystok

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.67 expected goals
Away form
Home win45%
Draw27%
Away win28%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win45% selection probability
Projected score1–1Rakow CzestochowaJagiellonia Bialystok
Expected goals2.67Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under50% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
45% / 27% / 28%Match resultHome win45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.1%)Double chance1272.9%1.37
Over 50% · Under 50%Goals 2.5Under50%2.00
Yes 54% · No 46%Both teams scoreYes54%1.85
2.67 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.2 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.5%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.1 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Rakow Czestochowa win45%2.222.0545%0.0 pp
Draw27%3.703.4027.1%-0.1 pp
Jagiellonia Bialystok win28%3.573.3027.9%+0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Rakow Czestochowa1.47

Home share of expected goals 55.1%

Total expected goals2.67Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 50% · Under 50%

Jagiellonia Bialystok1.20

Away share of expected goals 44.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 54% · No 46%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Rakow Czestochowa

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Jagiellonia Bialystok

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Win probability excluding draw
28%
5
Points from supplied form
10
1.47
Expected goals
1.20
Rakow CzestochowaJagiellonia Bialystok
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Rakow Czestochowa signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Jagiellonia Bialystok signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Rakow Czestochowa vs Jagiellonia Bialystok FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Rakow Czestochowa win 45%,Draw 27%,Jagiellonia Bialystok win 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.67 · Over 2.5 50% · Current selection Under