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POL Poland Ekstraklasa · Fixture ·

Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–13.14 expected goals
Away form
Home win41%
Draw27%
Away win32%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win41% selection probability
Projected score2–1Motor LublinPiast Gliwice
Expected goals3.14Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over61% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
41% / 27% / 32%Match resultHome win41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.8%)Double chance1273.2%1.37
Over 61% · Under 39%Goals 2.5Over61%1.64
Yes 61% · No 39%Both teams scoreYes61%1.64
3.14 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.9 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.6%Largest probability gapMotor Lublin winDifference+1.0 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Motor Lublin win41%2.442.3040%+1.0 pp
Draw27%3.703.4027.1%-0.1 pp
Piast Gliwice win32%3.132.8032.9%-0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Motor Lublin1.86

Home share of expected goals 59.2%

Total expected goals3.14Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 61% · Under 39%

Piast Gliwice1.28

Away share of expected goals 40.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 61% · No 39%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Motor Lublin

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Piast Gliwice

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Win probability excluding draw
32%
5
Points from supplied form
4
1.86
Expected goals
1.28
Motor LublinPiast Gliwice
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Motor Lublin signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Piast Gliwice signalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Motor Lublin win 41%,Draw 27%,Piast Gliwice win 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.14 · Over 2.5 61% · Current selection Over