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POL Poland Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.76 expected goals
Away form
Home win35%
Draw29%
Away win36%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win36% selection probability
Projected score1–1Wisla PlockKorona Kielce
Expected goals1.76Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under74% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo65% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
35% / 29% / 36%Match resultAway win36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.1%)Double chance1270.9%1.41
Over 26% · Under 74%Goals 2.5Under74%1.35
Yes 35% · No 65%Both teams scoreNo65%1.54
1.76 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.9 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.9%Largest probability gapWisla Plock winDifference-0.3 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Wisla Plock win35%2.862.6035.3%-0.3 pp
Draw29%3.453.2028.7%+0.3 pp
Korona Kielce win36%2.782.5536%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Wisla Plock0.83

Home share of expected goals 47.2%

Total expected goals1.76Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 26% · Under 74%

Korona Kielce0.93

Away share of expected goals 52.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 35% · No 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Wisla Plock

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Korona Kielce

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
35%
Win probability excluding draw
36%
7
Points from supplied form
5
0.83
Expected goals
0.93
Wisla PlockKorona Kielce
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Wisla Plock signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Korona Kielce signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Wisla Plock win 35%,Draw 29%,Korona Kielce win 36%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.76 · Over 2.5 26% · Current selection Under