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EST Estonia Esiliiga · Round 21 ·

JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Tallinn

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–13.83 expected goals
Away form
Home win62%
Draw19%
Away win19%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 62% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win62% selection probability
Projected score2–1JK Tallinna KalevFC Tallinn
Expected goals3.83Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over74% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes70% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
62% / 19% / 19%Match resultHome win62%1.61
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (19%)Double chance1281%1.23
Over 74% · Under 26%Goals 2.5Over74%1.35
Yes 70% · No 30%Both teams scoreYes70%1.43
3.83 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.4 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapJK Tallinna Kalev winDifference-0.1 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
JK Tallinna Kalev win62%1.611.4562.1%-0.1 pp
Draw19%5.264.7519%0.0 pp
FC Tallinn win19%5.264.7519%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

JK Tallinna Kalev2.39

Home share of expected goals 62.4%

Total expected goals3.83Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 74% · Under 26%

FC Tallinn1.44

Away share of expected goals 37.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 70% · No 30%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

JK Tallinna Kalev

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

FC Tallinn

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
62%
Win probability excluding draw
19%
10
Points from supplied form
9
2.39
Expected goals
1.44
JK Tallinna KalevFC Tallinn
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01JK Tallinna Kalev signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Tallinn signalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk38% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 19%.

Match questions

JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Tallinn FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 62% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

JK Tallinna Kalev win 62%,Draw 19%,FC Tallinn win 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.83 · Over 2.5 74% · Current selection Over