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HRV Croatia HNL · Round 1 ·

Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–22.82 expected goals
Away form
Home win33%
Draw28%
Away win39%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win39% selection probability
Projected score1–2Slaven BelupoNK Varazdin
Expected goals2.82Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over54% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
33% / 28% / 39%Match resultAway win39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.2%)Double chance1271.8%1.39
Over 54% · Under 46%Goals 2.5Over54%1.85
Yes 57% · No 43%Both teams scoreYes57%1.75
2.82 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Slaven Belupo win33%3.03
Draw28%3.57
NK Varazdin win39%2.56

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Slaven Belupo1.30

Home share of expected goals 46.1%

Total expected goals2.82Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 54% · Under 46%

NK Varazdin1.52

Away share of expected goals 53.9%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 57% · No 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Slaven Belupo

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

NK Varazdin

2.40pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
33%
Win probability excluding draw
39%
4
Points from supplied form
12
1.30
Expected goals
1.52
Slaven BelupoNK Varazdin
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Slaven Belupo signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02NK Varazdin signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Slaven Belupo win 33%,Draw 28%,NK Varazdin win 39%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.82 · Over 2.5 54% · Current selection Over