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HRV Croazia - HNL · Round 1 ·

Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–22.82 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa33%
Pareggio28%
Vittoria ospite39%
Full model forecastVittoria ospiteTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria ospite39% selection probability
Projected score1–2Slaven BelupoNK Varazdin
Expected goals2.82Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra54% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
33% / 28% / 39%Esito partitaVittoria ospite39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.2%)Doppia Chance1271.8%1.39
Sopra 54% · Sotto 46%Goals 2.5Sopra54%1.85
Sì 57% · No 43%Entrambe le squadre segnano57%1.75
2.82 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Slaven Belupo win33%3.03
Pareggio28%3.57
NK Varazdin win39%2.56

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Slaven Belupo1.30

Casa share of expected goals 46.1%

Total expected goals2.82Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 54% · Sotto 46%

NK Varazdin1.52

Trasferta share of expected goals 53.9%

Projected score1–2BTTS split 57% · No 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Slaven Belupo

0.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punti4

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

NK Varazdin

2.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punti12

SignalTrasferta unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
33%
Vinta probability excluding draw
39%
4
Points from supplied form
12
1.30
Expected goals
1.52
Slaven BelupoNK Varazdin
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Slaven Belupo signalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02NK Varazdin signalTrasferta unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria ospite · Projected score 1–2 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Slaven Belupo vinta 33%,Pareggio 28%,NK Varazdin vinta 39%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.82 · Sopra 2.5 54% · Current selection Sopra