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HRV Croatia - HNL · Round 1 ·

Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–22.82 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde33%
Egal28%
Victorie oaspeți39%
Full model forecastVictorie oaspețiTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie oaspeți39% selection probability
Projected score1–2Slaven BelupoNK Varazdin
Expected goals2.82Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Peste54% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăDa57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
33% / 28% / 39%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie oaspeți39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.2%)Șansă dublă1271.8%1.39
Peste 54% · Sub 46%Goals 2.5Peste54%1.85
Da 57% · Nu 43%Ambele echipe marcheazăDa57%1.75
2.82 total expected goalsScor corect1–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
Slaven Belupo win33%3.03
Egal28%3.57
NK Varazdin win39%2.56

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Slaven Belupo1.30

Gazde share of expected goals 46.1%

Total expected goals2.82Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 54% · Sub 46%

NK Varazdin1.52

Oaspeți share of expected goals 53.9%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitDa 57% · Nu 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Slaven Belupo

0.80pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Puncte4

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

NK Varazdin

2.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Puncte12

SignalOaspeți unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
33%
Câștig probability excluding draw
39%
4
Points from supplied form
12
1.30
Expected goals
1.52
Slaven BelupoNK Varazdin
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Slaven Belupo signalGazde matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02NK Varazdin signalOaspeți unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie oaspeți · Projected score 1–2 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Slaven Belupo câștig 33%,Egal 28%,NK Varazdin câștig 39%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.82 · Peste 2.5 54% · Current selection Peste