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HRV Croatia - HNL · Round 1 ·

Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–12.73 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde54%
Egal26%
Victorie oaspeți20%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde54% selection probability
Projected score2–1Hajduk SplitIstra 1961
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Peste51% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
54% / 26% / 20%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Istra 1961 win (19.5%)Șansă dublă1X80.5%1.24
Peste 51% · Sub 49%Goals 2.5Peste51%1.96
Da 47% · Nu 53%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu53%1.89
2.73 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
9.6 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
Hajduk Split win54%1.85
Egal26%3.85
Istra 1961 win20%5.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hajduk Split1.94

Gazde share of expected goals 71.1%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 51% · Sub 49%

Istra 19610.79

Oaspeți share of expected goals 28.9%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 47% · Nu 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Hajduk Split

1.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Puncte6

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Istra 1961

1.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puncte7

SignalOaspeți matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Câștig probability excluding draw
20%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.94
Expected goals
0.79
Hajduk SplitIstra 1961
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hajduk Split signalGazde matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Istra 1961 signalOaspeți matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hajduk Split câștig 54%,Egal 26%,Istra 1961 câștig 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Peste 2.5 51% · Current selection Peste