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HRV Kroatien - HNL · Round 2 ·

Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.73 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr54%
Uafgjort26%
Udesejr20%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr54% selection probability
Projected score2–1Hajduk SplitIstra 1961
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over51% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
54% / 26% / 20%KampresultatHjemmesejr54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Istra 1961 win (19.5%)Dobbeltchance1X80.5%1.24
Over 51% · Under 49%Goals 2.5Over51%1.96
Ja 47% · Nej 53%Begge hold scorerNej53%1.89
2.73 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.6 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Hajduk Split win54%1.85
Uafgjort26%3.85
Istra 1961 win20%5.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hajduk Split1.94

Hjemme share of expected goals 71.1%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 51% · Under 49%

Istra 19610.79

Ude share of expected goals 28.9%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 47% · Nej 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Hajduk Split

1.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Point6

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Istra 1961

1.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Point7

SignalUde matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Vundet probability excluding draw
20%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.94
Expected goals
0.79
Hajduk SplitIstra 1961
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hajduk Split signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Istra 1961 signalUde matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hajduk Split vundet 54%,Uafgjort 26%,Istra 1961 vundet 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Over 2.5 51% · Current selection Over