Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
7% / 16% / 76%Match resultAway win76%1.32
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Casa Pia win (7.4%)Double chanceX292.6%1.08
Over 52% · Under 48%Goals 2.5Over52%1.92
Yes 42% · No 58%Both teams scoreNo58%1.72
2.77 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2——
10.2 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin7.1%Largest probability gapBenfica winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Casa Pia win7%14.2913.007.2%-0.2 pp
Draw16%6.255.7516.2%-0.2 pp
Benfica win76%1.321.2276.6%-0.6 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 23.1%
Total expected goals2.77Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 52% · Under 48%
Away share of expected goals 76.9%
Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 42% · No 58%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
0.80pts / matchCasa Pia
LDWLL
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4
SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.60pts / matchBenfica
DDWWL
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8
SignalHome failed to score: 2/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
7%
Win probability excluding draw
76%4
Points from supplied form
80.64
Expected goals
2.13Casa PiaBenfica
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on AWAY
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 16%.
Match questions
Casa Pia vs Benfica FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 76% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Casa Pia win 7%，Draw 16%，Benfica win 76%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.77 · Over 2.5 52% · Current selection Over。