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PRT Portugalsko - Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

Casa Pia vs Benfica

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domácí form
Projected score1–22.76 expected goals
Hosté form
Výhra domácích7%
Remíza16%
Výhra hostů76%
Full model forecastVýhra hostůTier A · 76% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVýhra hostů76% selection probability
Projected score1–2Casa PiaBenfica
Expected goals2.76Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Více52% for the selected side
Oba týmy skórujíNe58% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Více 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVýběrPravděpodobnostFérový kurz
7% / 16% / 76%Výsledek zápasuVýhra hostů76%1.32
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Casa Pia win (7.4%)Dvojitá šanceX292.6%1.08
Více 52% · Méně 48%Goals 2.5Více52%1.92
Ano 42% · Ne 58%Oba týmy skórujíNe58%1.72
2.76 total expected goalsPřesné skóre1–2
10.2 expected match cornersRohyVíce 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.1%Largest probability gapBenfica winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomePředpověďFérový kurzReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Casa Pia win7%14.2913.007.2%-0.2 pp
Remíza16%6.255.7516.2%-0.2 pp
Benfica win76%1.321.2276.6%-0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Casa Pia0.64

Domácí share of expected goals 23.2%

Total expected goals2.76Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Více 52% · Méně 48%

Benfica2.12

Hosté share of expected goals 76.8%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitAno 42% · Ne 58%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domácí-context · form sequence

Casa Pia

0.80pts / match
Odehráno5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Body4

SignalDomácí matches under 2.5: 4/5

Hosté-context · form sequence

Benfica

1.60pts / match
Odehráno5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Body8

SignalDomácí failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
7%
Výhra probability excluding draw
76%
4
Points from supplied form
8
0.64
Expected goals
2.12
Casa PiaBenfica
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Casa Pia signalDomácí matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Benfica signalDomácí failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk24% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remíza probability alone is 16%.

Match questions

Casa Pia vs Benfica FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Výhra hostů · Projected score 1–2 · 76% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Casa Pia výhra 7%,Remíza 16%,Benfica výhra 76%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.76 · Více 2.5 52% · Current selection Více