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COL Colombia Primera A · Fixture ·

Deportes Tolima vs Internacional de Bogota

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.84 expected goals
Away form
Home win59%
Draw25%
Away win17%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 59% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win59% selection probability
Projected score2–1Deportes TolimaInternacional de Bogota
Expected goals2.84Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over54% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
59% / 25% / 17%Match resultHome win59%1.69
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Internacional de Bogota win (16.9%)Double chance1X83.1%1.20
Over 54% · Under 46%Goals 2.5Over54%1.85
Yes 46% · No 54%Both teams scoreNo54%1.85
2.84 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.1 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Deportes Tolima win59%1.69
Draw25%4.00
Internacional de Bogota win17%5.88

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Deportes Tolima2.12

Home share of expected goals 74.6%

Total expected goals2.84Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 54% · Under 46%

Internacional de Bogota0.72

Away share of expected goals 25.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 46% · No 54%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Deportes Tolima

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Internacional de Bogota

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
59%
Win probability excluding draw
17%
7
Points from supplied form
3
2.12
Expected goals
0.72
Deportes TolimaInternacional de Bogota
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Deportes Tolima signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Internacional de Bogota signalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk41% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Deportes Tolima vs Internacional de Bogota FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 59% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Deportes Tolima win 59%,Draw 25%,Internacional de Bogota win 17%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.84 · Over 2.5 54% · Current selection Over