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サガン鳥栖 vs ヴァンフォーレ甲府

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

ホーム form
Projected score2–13.14 expected goals
アウェイ form
ホーム勝利46%
引き分け28%
アウェイ勝利26%
Full model forecastホーム勝利Tier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callホーム勝利46% selection probability
Projected score2–1サガン鳥栖ヴァンフォーレ甲府
Expected goals3.14始値 match profile
Goals 2.5オーバー61% for the selected side
両チーム得点はい59% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0アンダー 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

Market選択確率フェアオッズ
46% / 28% / 26%試合結果ホーム勝利46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes ヴァンフォーレ甲府 win (26.2%)ダブルチャンス1X73.8%1.36
オーバー 61% · アンダー 39%Goals 2.5オーバー61%1.64
はい 59% · いいえ 41%両チーム得点はい59%1.69
3.14 total expected goals正確なスコア2–1
9.0 expected match cornersコーナーアンダー 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.0%Largest probability gapサガン鳥栖 winDifference+1.5 pp
Outcome予想フェアオッズReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
サガン鳥栖 win46%2.172.1044.5%+1.5 pp
引き分け28%3.573.2528.8%-0.8 pp
ヴァンフォーレ甲府 win26%3.853.5026.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

サガン鳥栖2.01

ホーム share of expected goals 64%

Total expected goals3.14始値

Dedicated goals model: オーバー 61% · アンダー 39%

ヴァンフォーレ甲府1.13

アウェイ share of expected goals 36%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitはい 59% · いいえ 41%Match profile始値
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

ホーム-context · form sequence

サガン鳥栖

0.40pts / match
試合数5Wins0Drawn2Losses3ポイント2

Signalホーム matches over 2.5: 3/5

アウェイ-context · form sequence

ヴァンフォーレ甲府

0.20pts / match
試合数5Wins0Drawn1Losses4ポイント1

Signalホーム clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
勝ち probability excluding draw
26%
2
Points from supplied form
1
2.01
Expected goals
1.13
サガン鳥栖ヴァンフォーレ甲府
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01サガン鳥栖 signalホーム matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02ヴァンフォーレ甲府 signalホーム clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. 引き分け probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

サガン鳥栖 vs ヴァンフォーレ甲府 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: ホーム勝利 · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

サガン鳥栖 勝ち 46%,引き分け 28%,ヴァンフォーレ甲府 勝ち 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.14 · オーバー 2.5 61% · Current selection オーバー