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Ajax riserve vs Helmond Sport

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–12.78 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa39%
Pareggio28%
Vittoria ospite33%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa39% selection probability
Projected score1–1Ajax riserveHelmond Sport
Expected goals2.78Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra53% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
39% / 28% / 33%Esito partitaVittoria casa39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.4%)Doppia Chance1271.6%1.40
Sopra 53% · Sotto 47%Goals 2.5Sopra53%1.89
Sì 57% · No 43%Entrambe le squadre segnano57%1.75
2.78 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
10.2 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Ajax riserve win39%2.56
Pareggio28%3.57
Helmond Sport win33%3.03

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Ajax riserve1.49

Casa share of expected goals 53.6%

Total expected goals2.78Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 53% · Sotto 47%

Helmond Sport1.29

Trasferta share of expected goals 46.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 57% · No 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Ajax riserve

0.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins0Drawn0Losses5Punti0

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Helmond Sport

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Vinta probability excluding draw
33%
0
Points from supplied form
5
1.49
Expected goals
1.29
Ajax riserveHelmond Sport
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Ajax riserve signalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Helmond Sport signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Ajax riserve vs Helmond Sport FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Ajax riserve vinta 39%,Pareggio 28%,Helmond Sport vinta 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.78 · Sopra 2.5 53% · Current selection Sopra